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Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

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The AIDS epidemic is having a growing impact on the transport sector of the economy of sub-Saharan Africa, where long-distance truck drivers are at an increased risk of infection due to their frequent contacts with com- mercial sex workers. The spread of AIDS in the transport industry is especially signi¯cant to the economy, as truck drivers are largely responsible for trans- porting crops and supplies needed for daily subsistence. In this paper we analyze these e®ects via two models, one employing a switch and the other a Verhulst saturation function, to describe the rate at which new drivers are recruited in terms of the supply and demand for them in the general popula- tion. Results provide an estimate of the epidemic's economic impact on the transportation sector through the loss of truck drivers (an estimated 10% per year, with endemic levels near 90%).


Mathematics | Physical Sciences and Mathematics

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This research has been partially supported by grants from the National Science Foundation, National Security Agency, and the Sloan Foun- dation (through the Cornell-Sloan National Pipeline Program in the Mathematical Sciences). Substantial ¯nancial and moral support was also provided by the Of- ¯ce of the Provost of Cornell University, the College of Agriculture & Life Science (CALS), and the Department of Biological Statistics & Computational Biology.

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