Document Type
Article
Source Publication Title
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
First Page
771
Last Page
788
Abstract
The AIDS epidemic is having a growing impact on the transport sector of the economy of sub-Saharan Africa, where long-distance truck drivers are at an increased risk of infection due to their frequent contacts with com- mercial sex workers. The spread of AIDS in the transport industry is especially signi¯cant to the economy, as truck drivers are largely responsible for trans- porting crops and supplies needed for daily subsistence. In this paper we analyze these e®ects via two models, one employing a switch and the other a Verhulst saturation function, to describe the rate at which new drivers are recruited in terms of the supply and demand for them in the general popula- tion. Results provide an estimate of the epidemic's economic impact on the transportation sector through the loss of truck drivers (an estimated 10% per year, with endemic levels near 90%).
Disciplines
Mathematics | Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Publication Date
10-1-2005
Language
English
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License.
Recommended Citation
Kribs, Christopher; Lee, Melanie; Roman, Christine; Wiley, Shari; and Hernandez-Suarez, Carlos M., "The effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on Africa's truck drivers" (2005). Mathematics Faculty Publications. 29.
https://mavmatrix.uta.edu/math_facpubs/29
Comments
This research has been partially supported by grants from the National Science Foundation, National Security Agency, and the Sloan Foun- dation (through the Cornell-Sloan National Pipeline Program in the Mathematical Sciences). Substantial ¯nancial and moral support was also provided by the Of- ¯ce of the Provost of Cornell University, the College of Agriculture & Life Science (CALS), and the Department of Biological Statistics & Computational Biology.