Graduation Semester and Year
Spring 2025
Language
English
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science in Earth and Environmental Science
Department
Earth and Environmental Sciences
First Advisor
Dr. Arne Winguth
Second Advisor
Dr. Ricardo Sanchez-Murillo
Third Advisor
Dr. Yunyao Li
Abstract
This study is a statistical analysis of climate trends within the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex according to several time-scale models to understand how the climate for the locality has changed and to provide a basis for projections of what future climate might look like. Trends in mean temperature and precipitation for North Central Texas generally correlate with corresponding global trends linked to natural variability and anthropogenic-induced climate change. Temperature rises in this region annually by 0.08°C and by 0.22°C for a three-decade average. Seasonal increases in three-decadal averages of temperature for North Central Texas relative to the average of the reference period from 1961-1990 are for 1.51°C for winter, 0.77°C for spring, 0.86°C for summer, and 0.65°C for fall. Rising temperature anomalies from 1901-2000 from Dallas-Fort Worth region correlates highly with corresponding trends of the U.S. but only moderative positive with the corresponding global trends. Noticeable are mid-20th century cooling that is linked to high aerosol load and multi-decadal climate variability. North Central Texas variability in temperature is highly correlated to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, while variability in precipitation is correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), though precipitation variability in North Central Texas does not experience any significant trend on an annual basis. This study does not confirm a significant correlation between ENSO values determined by the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for precipitation, though there exists a moderate correlation between ONI and temperature anomaly for the area. However, this correlation appears to be small, and regional effects like the urban heat island may also affect the record. Analysis of historical regional climate data and associated extremes in weather may be of importance for planning tools for the local community and regional stakeholders.
Keywords
climate change, tarrant county, mann kendall, climate statistics, local climate change, national weather service, ENSO, AMO, climate
Disciplines
Applied Statistics | Atmospheric Sciences | Climate | Environmental Health and Protection | Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment | Environmental Monitoring | Meteorology | Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Recommended Citation
DeBolt, Quinnton, "Statistical Analysis of Climate Trends and Variability in Tarrant County Using Annual, Decade, and Three-Decade Time Periods" (2025). Earth & Environmental Sciences Theses. 217.
https://mavmatrix.uta.edu/ees_theses/217
Included in
Applied Statistics Commons, Atmospheric Sciences Commons, Climate Commons, Environmental Health and Protection Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Environmental Monitoring Commons, Meteorology Commons, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons
Comments
This research would not have been possible if not for the contributions of several people. I would like to acknowledge the University of Texas at Arlington providing ample resources and funding during my time as a graduate student and a researcher. I would also like to acknowledge the contributions by the scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who have continued to make climate data readily available and easily accessible to the public, without which I would not have had the records necessary for my work.
I owe my sincerest gratitude to my supervising professor, Dr. Arne Winguth, and his climate research group for all of the guidance they have given me since my time as an undergraduate researcher. They have helped me grow in my confidence and knowledge as a scientist tenfold, as well provided a workspace I looked forward to going to every day. I would also like to thank my committee members, Dr. Ricardo Sanchez-Murillo and Dr. Yunyao Li, for their helpful advice and contributions to this research.
Finally, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to my friends and family who have supported me throughout my undergraduate and graduate education. Continuing my education journey would not have been possible financially, physically or emotionally if it weren’t for my community cheering me on the entire time.