ORCID Identifier(s)


Graduation Semester and Year




Document Type


Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy in Industrial Engineering


Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering

First Advisor

Paul Componation


Oil and Gas (O&G) well drilling is risky and expensive. The cost of drilling is typically underestimated, and there is little understanding of the certainty or Probability of Success (POS) of achieving the well objectives within the estimated cost. This dissertation presents, for the first time, a publicly available POS Cost method/tool that enables O&G operators to estimate the cost of well drilling substantially more accurately and improve the POS of accomplishing the drilling for the estimated cost. This POS Cost method employs a comprehensive, expert-based assessment of risks and risk mitigations that are incorporated into a Monte-Carlo-based simulation of the well drilling process. Results for applying the POS Cost method/tool to a sample well drilling operation demonstrated that, without employing a risk assessment/risk mitigation approach, the POS Cost of the sample well was roughly 40%, but with the risk assessment/risk mitigation included the POS could be increased to over 80% for an associated cost of roughly 4% for the risk mitigation. Many O&G operators would gladly trade that additional cost for risk mitigation to obtain an 80% POS or greater for accomplishing the well for the estimated cost. This enhances the assurance for the Approval of Expenditures (AFE) and increases the likelihood of successfully achieving the objectives of the well while accounting for time efficiencies due to the incorporations of the mitigation strategies. The POS Cost Tool can also be used to create and evaluate best value options for problem-solving during the drilling process to improve POS for the remainder of the operation.


Probability of success risks, Opportunity management, Oil and Gas Performance improvement


Engineering | Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering


Degree granted by The University of Texas at Arlington

Available for download on Thursday, August 01, 2024